US scrap trends for August 2026 predict tightening supply and price volatility across ferrous and non-ferrous markets.
US scrap markets anticipate significant volatility in August 2026, with tightening supply expected to drive price fluctuations across both ferrous and non-ferrous sectors.
This outlook directly impacts mill procurement strategies, scrap yard inventories, and ultimately, the profitability of recycling operations nationwide. Participants must prepare for rapid market shifts and potential supply chain disruptions.
Ferrous Scrap: Supply Constraints Drive Upward Pressure
Ferrous scrap prices will likely experience upward pressure due to persistent supply constraints and robust demand from domestic steel mills. Shredded scrap availability remains a key concern, exacerbated by lower industrial generation and ongoing labor challenges at processing facilities.
- No. 1 HMS prices could see a $15-$25/ton increase in August.
- Shredded scrap generation is down 3% year-over-year as of Q2 2026.
- Domestic steel mill utilization rates averaged 81.5% in July, indicating strong demand.
- Export demand from Turkey and Vietnam provides an additional floor for prices, absorbing surplus material.
Non-Ferrous Outlook: Copper Leads Volatility
The non-ferrous sector will face its own set of challenges, with copper leading price volatility. Red metal markets react to global economic indicators and fluctuating energy costs, which directly impact smelting and refining operations. Aluminum scrap, while more stable, still contends with regional supply imbalances.
Copper scrap prices could swing by 5-8 cents/lb in August, influenced by LME movements and constrained cathode production. Aluminum scrap, particularly used beverage cans (UBCs), maintains steady demand, but collection rates have not kept pace with increased capacity expansions in the secondary aluminum sector, creating localized shortages for some re-melters.
What This Means for Recyclers
Recyclers must prioritize efficient inventory management and dynamic pricing strategies to navigate the anticipated August market. Securing reliable transportation and negotiating favorable terms with both suppliers and buyers will be crucial for maintaining margins. Operators should closely monitor mill buying patterns and international trade flows for early indicators of market shifts.
